Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam
Identifieur interne : 004473 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 004472; suivant : 004474Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam
Auteurs : Hoang Quoc Cuong ; Nguyen Thanh Vu ; Bernard Cazelles ; Maciej F. Boni ; Khoa T. D. Thai ; Maia A. Rabaa ; Luong Chan Quang ; Cameron P. Simmons ; Tran Ngoc Huu ; Katherine L. AndersSource :
- Emerging Infectious Diseases [ 1080-6040 ] ; 2013.
Abstract
An improved understanding of heterogeneities in dengue virus transmission might provide insights into biological and ecologic drivers and facilitate predictions of the magnitude, timing, and location of future dengue epidemics. To investigate dengue dynamics in urban Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring rural provinces in Vietnam, we analyzed a 10-year monthly time series of dengue surveillance data from southern Vietnam. The per capita incidence of dengue was lower in Ho Chi Minh City than in most rural provinces; annual epidemics occurred 1–3 months later in Ho Chi Minh City than elsewhere. The timing and the magnitude of annual epidemics were significantly more correlated in nearby districts than in remote districts, suggesting that local biological and ecologic drivers operate at a scale of 50–100 km. Dengue incidence during the dry season accounted for 63% of variability in epidemic magnitude. These findings can aid the targeting of vector-control interventions and the planning for dengue vaccine implementation.
Url:
DOI: 10.3201/eid1906.121323
PubMed: 23735713
PubMed Central: 3713821
Affiliations:
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The timing and the magnitude of annual epidemics were significantly more correlated in nearby districts than in remote districts, suggesting that local biological and ecologic drivers operate at a scale of 50–100 km. Dengue incidence during the dry season accounted for 63% of variability in epidemic magnitude. 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